AMBIENT AIR-POLLUTION
; PREMATURE MORTALITY
; SAHEL DROUGHT
; GLOBAL BURDEN
; AEROSOLS
; IMPACTS
; CONSTRAINTS
; RAINFALL
; MODEL
; CO2
WOS学科分类:
Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:
Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols are associated with climate change and human health risks. We used a global model to estimate the climate and public health outcomes attributable to fossil fuel use, indicating the potential benefits of a phaseout. We show that it can avoid an excess mortality rate of 3.61 (2.96-4.21) million per year from outdoor air pollution worldwide. This could be up to 5.55 (4.52-6.52) million per year by additionally controlling nonfossil anthropogenic sources. Globally, fossil-fuel-related emissions account for about 65% of the excess mortality, and 70% of the climate cooling by anthropogenic aerosols. The chemical influence of air pollution on aeolian dust contributes to the aerosol cooling. Because aerosols affect the hydrologic cycle, removing the anthropogenic emissions in the model increases rainfall by 10-70% over densely populated regions in India and 10-30% over northern China, and by 10-40% over Central America, West Africa, and the droughtprone Sahel, thus contributing to water and food security. Since aerosols mask the anthropogenic rise in global temperature, removing fossil-fuel-generated particles liberates 0.51(+/- 0.03) degrees C and all pollution particles 0.73(+/- 0.03) degrees C warming, reaching around 2 degrees C over North America and Northeast Asia. The steep temperature increase from removing aerosols can be moderated to about 0.36(+/- 0.06) degrees C globally by the simultaneous reduction of tropospheric ozone and methane. We conclude that a rapid phaseout of fossil-fuel-related emissions and major reductions of other anthropogenic sources are needed to save millions of lives, restore aerosol-perturbed rainfall patterns, and limit global warming to 2 degrees C.
1.Max Planck Inst Chem, Dept Atmospher Chem, D-55128 Mainz, Germany 2.Cyprus Inst, Energy Environm & Water Res Ctr, CY-1645 Nicosia, Cyprus 3.Hlth Canada, Populat Studies Div, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada 4.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth, London WC1 9SH, England 5.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
Recommended Citation:
Lelieveld, J.,Klingmueller, K.,Pozzer, A.,et al. Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(15):7192-7197