globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-1125-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000463905400001
论文题名:
Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble
作者: Zekollari, Harry1,2,4; Huss, Matthias1,3; Farinotti, Daniel1,2
通讯作者: Zekollari, Harry
刊名: CRYOSPHERE
ISSN: 1994-0416
EISSN: 1994-0424
出版年: 2019
卷: 13, 期:4, 页码:1125-1146
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: VADRET DA MORTERATSCH ; 21ST-CENTURY CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ; ICE-FLOW MODEL ; ALPINE GLACIER ; FRENCH ALPS ; INVENTORY ; LENGTH ; SWITZERLAND ; ELEVATION
WOS学科分类: Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Physical Geography ; Geology
英文摘要:

Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. The future evolution of these glaciers is driven by surface mass balance and ice flow processes, of which the latter is to date not included explicitly in regional glacier projections for the Alps. Here, we model the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps with GloGEMflow, an extended version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), in which both surface mass balance and ice flow are explicitly accounted for. The mass balance model is calibrated with glacier-specific geodetic mass balances and forced with high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The evolution of the total glacier volume in the coming decades is relatively similar under the various representative concentrations pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), with volume losses of about 47 %-52 % in 2050 with respect to 2017. We find that under RCP2.6, the ice loss in the second part of the 21st century is relatively limited and that about one-third (36.8 % +/- 11.1 %, multi-model mean +/- 1 sigma) of the present-day (2017) ice volume will still be present in 2100. Under a strong warming (RCP8.5) the future evolution of the glaciers is dictated by a substantial increase in surface melt, and glaciers are projected to largely disappear by 2100 (94.4 +/- 4.4 % volume loss vs. 2017). For a given RCP, differences in future changes are mainly determined by the driving global climate model (GCM), rather than by the RCM, and these differences are larger than those arising from various model parameters (e.g. flow parameters and cross-section parameterisation). We find that under a lim- ited warming, the inclusion of ice dynamics reduces the projected mass loss and that this effect increases with the glacier elevation range, implying that the inclusion of ice dynamics is likely to be important for global glacier evolution projections.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134171
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Lab Hydraul Hydrol & Glaciol VAW, Zurich, Switzerland
2.Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
3.Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, Fribourg, Switzerland
4.Delft Univ Technol, Dept Geosci & Remote Sensing, Delft, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Zekollari, Harry,Huss, Matthias,Farinotti, Daniel. Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble[J]. CRYOSPHERE,2019-01-01,13(4):1125-1146
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