Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH
; ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
; MODEL
; CHEMISTRY
; FRAMEWORK
; AEROSOLS
WOS学科分类:
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向:
Geology
英文摘要:
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9Wm(-2) scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 degrees C, and on the high end by a 8.5W m(-2) scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 degrees C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
1.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 2.Joint Global Change Res Inst, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA 3.Kyoto Univ, Nishikyo Ku, 361,C1-3,Kyoto Univ Katsura Campus, Kyoto 6158540, Japan 4.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan 5.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany 6.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Postbus 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands 7.Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, EUREF Campus 19,Torgauer Str 12-15, D-10829 Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Gidden, Matthew J.,Riahi, Keywan,Smith, Steven J.,et al. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century[J]. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,2019-01-01,12(4):1443-1475