globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000464358800001
论文题名:
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
作者: Gidden, Matthew J.1; Riahi, Keywan1; Smith, Steven J.2; Fujimori, Shinichiro3,4; Luderer, Gunnar5; Kriegler, Elmar5; van Vuuren, Detlef P.6; van den Berg, Maarten6; Feng, Leyang2; Klein, David5; Calvin, Katherine2; Doelman, Jonathan C.6; Frank, Stefan1; Fricko, Oliver1; Harmsen, Mathijs6; Hasegawa, Tomoko4; Havlik, Petr1; Hilaire, Jerome5,7; Hoesly, Rachel2; Horing, Jill2; Popp, Alexander5; Stehfest, Elke6; Takahashi, Kiyoshi4
通讯作者: Gidden, Matthew J.
刊名: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
ISSN: 1991-959X
EISSN: 1991-9603
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:4, 页码:1443-1475
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS ; MODEL ; CHEMISTRY ; FRAMEWORK ; AEROSOLS
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Geology
英文摘要:

We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9Wm(-2) scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 degrees C, and on the high end by a 8.5W m(-2) scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 degrees C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134255
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
2.Joint Global Change Res Inst, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
3.Kyoto Univ, Nishikyo Ku, 361,C1-3,Kyoto Univ Katsura Campus, Kyoto 6158540, Japan
4.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan
5.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
6.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Postbus 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands
7.Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, EUREF Campus 19,Torgauer Str 12-15, D-10829 Berlin, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Gidden, Matthew J.,Riahi, Keywan,Smith, Steven J.,et al. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century[J]. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,2019-01-01,12(4):1443-1475
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