globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000464494100001
论文题名:
Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution
作者: Bellprat, Omar1,2; Guemas, Virginie1; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco1,3; Donat, Markus G.1,4
通讯作者: Bellprat, Omar
刊名: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN: 2041-1723
出版年: 2019
卷: 10
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SEAMLESS PREDICTION ; SEASONAL FORECASTS ; CALIBRATION ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; 20TH-CENTURY ; HEATWAVE ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134341
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Earth Sci Dept, Carrer Jordi Girona 29-31, Barcelona 08005, Spain
2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci IAC, Univ Str 16, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland
3.ICREA, Barcelona 08005, Spain
4.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Bellprat, Omar,Guemas, Virginie,Doblas-Reyes, Francisco,et al. Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10
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