globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014009
论文题名:
Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks
作者: Stefanos Mystakidis; Sonia I Seneviratne; Nicolas Gruber; Edouard L Davin
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2017
发表日期: 2017-01-11
卷: 12, 期:1
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as simulated by models that participated in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). The constraints result in a ca. 40% lower response of NBP to climate change and a ca. 30% reduction in the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect relative to the unconstrained multi-model mean. While the unconstrained CMIP5 models suggest an increase in the cumulative terrestrial carbon storage (477 PgC) in response to an idealized scenario of 1%/year atmospheric CO2 increase, the constraints imply a ca. 19% smaller change. Overall, the applied emerging constraint approach offers a possibility to reduce uncertainties in the projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a key determinant of the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration and resulting climate change.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014009
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13538
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Stefanos Mystakidis,Sonia I Seneviratne,Nicolas Gruber,et al. Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2017-01-01,12(1)
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