globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835
论文题名:
Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century
作者: Xianli Wang; Marc-André Parisien; Steve W Taylor; Jean-Noël Candau; Diana Stralberg; Ginny A Marshall; John M Little; Mike D Flannigan
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2017
发表日期: 2017-02-02
卷: 12, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating 'spread days' to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada's forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13581
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada. 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada;Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.;Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada;Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre. 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada;Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada. 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada;Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta. 751 General Services Building Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada;Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada;Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta. 751 General Services Building Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada;Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada;Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta. 751 General Services Building Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Xianli Wang,Marc-André Parisien,Steve W Taylor,et al. Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2017-01-01,12(2)
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