globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000465202300005
论文题名:
Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements
作者: Yumashev, Dmitry1,2; Hope, Chris3; Schaefer, Kevin4; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin5; Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando2,6,7; Jafarov, Elchin4,8; Burke, Eleanor J.9; Young, Paul J.1,2,10; Elshorbany, Yasin11; Whiteman, Gail1
通讯作者: Yumashev, Dmitry
刊名: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN: 2041-1723
出版年: 2019
卷: 10
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SURFACE ALBEDO FEEDBACK ; SEA-LEVEL RISE ; TIPPING POINTS ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; DAMAGE COSTS ; SOIL CARBON ; ICE-SHEET ; DEGREES-C ; CMIP5 ; SENSITIVITY
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 degrees C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 degrees C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 degrees C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 degrees C target, although both are statistically equivalent.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136677
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Lancaster, Pentland Ctr Sustainabil Business, Lancaster LA1 4YX, England
2.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England
3.Univ Cambridge, Judge Business Sch, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England
4.Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
5.Helmholtz Zentrum Polar & Meeresforsch, Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
6.CSIC, Inst Phys Chem Rocasolano, Dept Atmospher Chem, E-28006 Madrid, Spain
7.CSIC, Inst Phys Chem Rocasolano, Climate Grp, E-28006 Madrid, Spain
8.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Computat Earth Sci Earth & Environm Sci EES 16, Los Alamos, NM USA
9.UK Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
10.Univ Lancaster, Data Sci Inst, Lancaster LA1 4YW, England
11.Univ S Florida, Coll Arts & Sci, St Petersburg, FL 33701 USA

Recommended Citation:
Yumashev, Dmitry,Hope, Chris,Schaefer, Kevin,et al. Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10
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