Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 degrees C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 degrees C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 degrees C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 degrees C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
1.Univ Lancaster, Pentland Ctr Sustainabil Business, Lancaster LA1 4YX, England 2.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England 3.Univ Cambridge, Judge Business Sch, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England 4.Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 5.Helmholtz Zentrum Polar & Meeresforsch, Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany 6.CSIC, Inst Phys Chem Rocasolano, Dept Atmospher Chem, E-28006 Madrid, Spain 7.CSIC, Inst Phys Chem Rocasolano, Climate Grp, E-28006 Madrid, Spain 8.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Computat Earth Sci Earth & Environm Sci EES 16, Los Alamos, NM USA 9.UK Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England 10.Univ Lancaster, Data Sci Inst, Lancaster LA1 4YW, England 11.Univ S Florida, Coll Arts & Sci, St Petersburg, FL 33701 USA
Recommended Citation:
Yumashev, Dmitry,Hope, Chris,Schaefer, Kevin,et al. Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10