globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9
WOS记录号: WOS:000465199400001
论文题名:
Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale
作者: Kendon, Elizabeth J.1; Stratton, Rachel A.1; Tucker, Simon1; Marsham, John H.2; Berthou, Segolene1; Rowell, David P.1; Senior, Catherine A.1
通讯作者: Kendon, Elizabeth J.
刊名: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN: 2041-1723
出版年: 2019
卷: 10
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: OFFICE UNIFIED MODEL ; TROPICAL PRECIPITATION ; MOIST CONVECTION ; SAHEL ; RAINFALL ; MONSOON ; REPRESENTATION ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

African society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The representation of convection in climate models has so far restricted our ability to accurately simulate African weather extremes, limiting climate change predictions. Here we show results from climate change experiments with a convection-permitting (4.5 km grid-spacing) model, for the first time over an Africa-wide domain (CP4A). The model realistically captures hourly rainfall characteristics, unlike coarser resolution models. CP4A shows greater future increases in extreme 3-hourly precipitation compared to a convection-parameterised 25 km model (R25). CP4A also shows future increases in dry spell length during the wet season over western and central Africa, weaker or not apparent in R25. These differences relate to the more realistic representation of convection in CP4A, and its response to increasing atmospheric moisture and stability. We conclude that, with the more accurate representation of convection, projected changes in both wet and dry extremes over Africa may be more severe.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136686
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
2.Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

Recommended Citation:
Kendon, Elizabeth J.,Stratton, Rachel A.,Tucker, Simon,et al. Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10
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