globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001
论文题名:
European summer temperatures since Roman times
作者: J Luterbacher; J P Werner; J E Smerdon; L Fernández-Donado; F J González-Rouco; D Barriopedro; F C Ljungqvist; U Büntgen; E Zorita; S Wagner; J Esper; D McCarroll; A Toreti; D Frank; J H Jungclaus; M Barriendos; C Bertolin; O Bothe; R Brázdil; D Camuffo; P Dobrovolný; M Gagen; E García-Bustamante; Q Ge; J J Gómez-Navarro; J Guiot; Z Hao; G C Hegerl; K Holmgren; V V Klimenko; J Martín-Chivelet; C Pfister; N Roberts; A Schindler; A Schurer; O Solomina; L von Gunten; E Wahl; H Wanner; O Wetter; E Xoplaki; N Yuan; D Zanchettin; H Zhang; C Zerefos
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-01-29
卷: 11, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13669
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Senckenbergstrasse 1, D-35930 Giessen, Germany;University of Bergen, Department of Earth Science and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégt. 41, NO-5020 Bergen, Norway;Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA;Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Centro Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Departamento de Física de la Tierra II, Astronomía y Astrofísica II, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Centro Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Departamento de Física de la Tierra II, Astronomía y Astrofísica II, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Centro Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Departamento de Física de la Tierra II, Astronomía y Astrofísica II, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Department of History, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany;Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany;Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, D-55099 Mainz, Germany;Department of Geography, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK;European Commission, Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra, Italy;Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Montalegre 6, E-08001 Barcelona, Spain;National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Padova, Italy;University of Science and Technology NTNU -department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, research centre zero emission buildings, Trondheim, Norway;Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, and Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic;National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Padova, Italy;Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, and Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic;Department of Geography, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK;Universidad de Murcia, Department of Physics, Murcia, Spain;CIEMAT: Renewable Energy Unit. CIEMAT. Madrid, Spain;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, CEREGE UM34, F-13545 Aix en Provence, France;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China;School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK;Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;Navarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino, 24001, Messinia, Greece;Russian Academy of Science and Global Energy Problems Laboratory, Moscow Energy Institute, Krasnokazarmennaya St. 14, 111250 Moscow, Russia;Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Centro Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Departamento Estratigrafía, Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Plymouth University, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK;Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteoswiss, Operation Center 1, 8058 Zurich-Flughafen, Switzerland;School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK;Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Science, Staromonetny-29, Moscow, Russia;PAGES International Project Office, Falkenplatz 16, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;NOAA Paleoclimatology Program, National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, Boulder, USA;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Senckenbergstrasse 1, D-35930 Giessen, Germany;Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Senckenbergstrasse 1, D-35930 Giessen, Germany;University of Venice, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, I-30123 Venice, Italy;Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Senckenbergstrasse 1, D-35930 Giessen, Germany;Navarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino, 24001, Messinia, Greece;Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece

Recommended Citation:
J Luterbacher,J P Werner,J E Smerdon,et al. European summer temperatures since Roman times[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(2)
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