globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000465635800003
论文题名:
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
作者: Bulthuis, Kevin1,2; Arnst, Maarten1; Sun, Sainan2; Pattyn, Frank2
通讯作者: Bulthuis, Kevin
刊名: CRYOSPHERE
ISSN: 1994-0416
EISSN: 1994-0424
出版年: 2019
卷: 13, 期:4, 页码:1349-1380
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: FUTURE SEA-LEVEL ; MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; POLYNOMIAL CHAOS EXPANSION ; SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ; PINE ISLAND ; THWAITES GLACIER ; WEST ANTARCTICA ; BASAL CONDITIONS ; MELT RATES ; SHELF
WOS学科分类: Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Physical Geography ; Geology
英文摘要:

Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheet dynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basins with retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on the continental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over the next millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all investigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level rise projections that goes from 5% to 25% in RCP 2.6 to more than 90% in RCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea level is controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins, with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of MISI in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty, and that, almost irrespective of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136711
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Liege, Quartier Polytech 1, Computat & Stochast Modeling, Aerosp & Mech Engn, Allee Decouverte 9, B-4000 Liege, Belgium
2.Univ Libre Bruxelles, Dept Geosci Environm & Soc, Lab Glaciol, Av FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium

Recommended Citation:
Bulthuis, Kevin,Arnst, Maarten,Sun, Sainan,et al. Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change[J]. CRYOSPHERE,2019-01-01,13(4):1349-1380
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Bulthuis, Kevin]'s Articles
[Arnst, Maarten]'s Articles
[Sun, Sainan]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Bulthuis, Kevin]'s Articles
[Arnst, Maarten]'s Articles
[Sun, Sainan]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Bulthuis, Kevin]‘s Articles
[Arnst, Maarten]‘s Articles
[Sun, Sainan]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.