globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024006
论文题名:
Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: incorporation of probability distributions and hydro-climatic variability
作者: T I E Veldkamp; Y Wada; J C J H Aerts; P J Ward
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-02-02
卷: 11, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024006
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13674
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands;Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA;NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA;Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, The Netherlands;Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands;Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
T I E Veldkamp,Y Wada,J C J H Aerts,et al. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: incorporation of probability distributions and hydro-climatic variability[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(2)
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