globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1602777
WOS记录号: WOS:000467818400004
论文题名:
The influence of dependence in characterizing multi-variable uncertainty for climate change impact assessments
作者: Eghdamirad, Sajjad1; Johnson, Fiona2; Sharma, Ashish2; Kim, Joong Hoon1
通讯作者: Kim, Joong Hoon
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
ISSN: 0262-6667
EISSN: 2150-3435
出版年: 2019
卷: 64, 期:6, 页码:731-738
语种: 英语
英文关键词: statistical downscaling ; uncertainty ; climate variable uncertainty dependence ; Taylor series
WOS关键词: SUPPORT VECTOR ; SYSTEMATIC BIASES ; REGRESSION ; PRECIPITATION ; FLOW
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Few approaches exist that explicitly use the uncertainty associated with the spread of climate model simulations in assessing climate change impacts. An approach that does so is second-order approximation (SOA). This incorporates quantification of uncertainty to ascertain its impact on the derived response using a Taylor series expansion of the model. This study uses SOA in a statistical downscaling model of monthly streamflow, with a focus on the influence of dependence in the uncertainty of multiple atmospheric variables. Uncertainty is quantified using the square root error variance concept with a new extension that allows the inter-dependence terms among the atmospheric variable uncertainty to be specified. Applying the model to selected point locations in Australia, it is noted that the downscaling results differ considerably from downscaling that ignores uncertainty. However, when the effects of dependence in uncertainty are incorporated, the results differ according to the regional variations in dependence structure.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136751
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Korea Univ, Sch Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Seoul, South Korea
2.Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Eghdamirad, Sajjad,Johnson, Fiona,Sharma, Ashish,et al. The influence of dependence in characterizing multi-variable uncertainty for climate change impact assessments[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,2019-01-01,64(6):731-738
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