globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/asl.895
WOS记录号: WOS:000471316500002
论文题名:
Tendency towards a more extreme precipitation climate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models
作者: Lehtonen, Ilari; Jylha, Kirsti
通讯作者: Lehtonen, Ilari
刊名: ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
ISSN: 1530-261X
出版年: 2019
卷: 20, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; CMIP5 ; global climate models ; precipitation ; RCP scenarios
WOS关键词: HEAVY-PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; INDEXES ; ENSEMBLE ; TRENDS
WOS学科分类: Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Extremity of precipitation climate can be evaluated by the intensity of both wet and dry extremes. Here we illustrate the tendency towards more extreme precipitation climate during the 21st century in a multi-model ensemble of 32 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. We compare the projected changes in two climatic indices describing the extremity of precipitation climate. One index, the maximum 1-d precipitation (R1d) represents the wet and another, the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), represents the dry extremes. Averaged over the globe, both indices are projected to increase, implying an overall tendency towards more extreme precipitation climate. The projected increase, in relative terms, is approximately twice as large in R1d as in CDD. Also on a regional scale, in almost all global land areas the precipitation climate is rather projected to become more than less extreme. Two thirds of these areas exhibit a more pronounced change in wet than dry extremes and slightly less than one third of the areas showing a more pronounced change in dry than wet extremes. Only over limited areas the precipitation climate shows a tendency towards less extreme conditions. In reproducing the observed mean precipitation in 1971-2000, the models tend to be too wet in dry regions and too dry in wet regions. There are not any consistent differences in the tendency towards more extreme precipitation climate among the models depending on their horizontal or vertical resolution.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136819
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorol Inst, Weather & Climate Change Impact Res, Helsinki, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Lehtonen, Ilari,Jylha, Kirsti. Tendency towards a more extreme precipitation climate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models[J]. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS,2019-01-01,20(5)
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