全球变化知识资源中心

This study explores the climate impacts of on-road tourist transportation with alternate mitigation strategies. To this end, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2016 and emissions under four what-if scenarios were estimated for a popular tourist site in Pakistan, i.e., Murree Hills, using the international vehicle emissions model. Alternate scenarios included occupancy optimization, bus transit system, and Euro II and Euro IV implementation. The emissions were further decomposed using the log mean Divisia index method to study the drivers of global warming potential (GWP) mitigation. As per the results, the total 20-year GWP for 2016 was equal to 51,262 tons CO2 equivalent, and maximum reduction was achieved under the bus transit system scenario having a 20-year GWP of 25,736 tons CO2 equivalent, i.e., 49.8% reduction. Relative to the base year, GWP reductions were also quite significant for Euro IV (46.8%), Euro II (45.8%), and occupancy optimization (32.3%) scenarios. For the base year, CO2 held a share of 87.3% in total emissions; however, its share in the 20-year GWP was 39.7% indicating its reduced impact on total GWP as compared to N2O, CO, NOx, VOC, and CH4. Based on the decomposition results for alternate scenarios, GWP mitigation was mainly driven by CO, CH4, NOx, VOCs, and partially by CO2, while N2O negatively affected GWP mitigation. These results provide several policy-level instruments for developing countries to design a transition to an eco-friendly tourist transport management system. The policy implications from this study can be used to promote an eco-tourism industry.