globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2019.02.024
WOS记录号: WOS:000470949300008
论文题名:
Evolution of opinions in the growth-vs-environment debate: Extended replicator dynamics
作者: van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.1,2,3,4; Savin, Ivan1,5; Drews, Stefan1
通讯作者: van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.
刊名: FUTURES
ISSN: 0016-3287
EISSN: 1873-6378
出版年: 2019
卷: 109, 页码:84-100
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Opinion dynamics ; Economic growth ; Environment ; Sustainability ; Climate change
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; SOCIAL NORMS ; LIMITS ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Economics ; Regional & Urban Planning
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics ; Public Administration
英文摘要:

The evolution of opinions in the long-standing debate on growth-versus-environment may affect support for important sustainability policies, in areas such as biodiversity loss, climate change, deforestation and freshwater scarcity. In order to understand this evolution, we develop a model describing the dynamics of four distinct opinions as identified in recent surveys, namely growthat-all-cost, green growth, agrowth and degrowth. The model is based on modifying standard replicator dynamics to match a multi-group structure. Individuals are influenced by local or global interactions with others, based on adjacent opinion groups and exposure to information about environmental change. Psychological resistance to opinion change is also accounted for. The model is calibrated with recent survey data. Numerical analysis shows which opinions survive under particular conditions. We find, among others, that under local interactions, ultimate outcomes are characterized by lack of consensus, i.e. survival of multiple opinions. In addition, equal impacts of environmental change on opinions do not always translate in joint survival of associated opinions. Under worsening environmental conditions while continuing economic growth, opinions shift from green growth to agrowth and degrowth. Fostering global interactions among individuals, causing them to be influenced by a broad spectrum of opinions, makes consensus more likely. We also consider model dynamics if feedback from opinions to policy to environmental change and back is included. This confirms robustness of the results. It should be noted that the model is not meant to predict but to explore the consequences of combinations of assumptions about social networks, psychological mechanisms, environmental dynamics, and connections between opinion distribution and environmental policy. The study represents the first analysis of opinion dynamics in the growth-vs-environment debate and suggests a number of routes for further investigation.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136841
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Environm Sci & Technol, Edifici Z,UAB Campus, Bellaterra 08193, Spain
2.ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Sch Business & Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands
4.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
5.Ural Fed Univ, Grad Sch Econ & Management, Ekaterinburg, Russia

Recommended Citation:
van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.,Savin, Ivan,Drews, Stefan. Evolution of opinions in the growth-vs-environment debate: Extended replicator dynamics[J]. FUTURES,2019-01-01,109:84-100
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.]'s Articles
[Savin, Ivan]'s Articles
[Drews, Stefan]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.]'s Articles
[Savin, Ivan]'s Articles
[Drews, Stefan]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.]‘s Articles
[Savin, Ivan]‘s Articles
[Drews, Stefan]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.