globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5994
WOS记录号: WOS:000465863900007
论文题名:
Downscaling climate change of water availability, sediment yield and extreme events: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin
作者: Zhang, Rong1,2; Corte-Real, Joao1,3,4,5; Moreira, Madalena1; Kilsby, Chris6; Birkinshaw, Stephen6; Burton, Aidan6; Fowler, Hayley J.6; Forsythe, Nathan6; Nunes, Joao Pedro4,5,7; Sampaio, Elsa1; dos Santos, Francisco Lucio1; Mourato, Sandra1,8
通讯作者: Zhang, Rong
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:6, 页码:2947-2963
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme events ; hydrological impact assessment ; Mediterranean climate region ; sediment yield ; SHETRAN ; water availability
WOS关键词: SYSTEME HYDROLOGIQUE EUROPEEN ; TRANSNATIONAL BASINS ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; SOIL-EROSION ; RAINFALL ; IMPACT ; SHETRAN ; FUTURE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A robust hydrological impact assessment is indispensable for mitigation and adaptation planning. This study presents an integrated modelling methodology for evaluating climate change impacts on water availability, sediment yield and extreme events at the catchment scale. We propose the use of the spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (STNSRP) modelRainSim V3 and the rainfall conditioned daily weather generatorICAAM-WG, as well as the physically based spatially distributed hydrological modelSHETRAN. The change factor approach was applied for obtaining unbiased rainfall and temperature statistics. The ICAAM-WG was developed based on the modified Climate Research Unit daily Weather Generator (CRU-WG). The methodology is proposed to generate synthetic series of hourly precipitation, daily temperature and potential evapotranspiration, hourly runoff and hourly sediment discharge. We demonstrated a possible application in a 705-km(2) Mediterranean climate basin in southern Portugal. The case study showed the evaluation of future climate change impacts on annual and monthly water balance components and sediment yield, annual and seasonal flow duration curves, empirical extreme value distributions and the theoretical fits. It did not consider the possible uncertainty due to the limit of computational resources. The methodology can be well justified as follows: (a) the use of synthetic hourly instead of daily precipitation enables SHETRAN to be more capable of reproducing reliable storm runoff processes and the consequent sediment transport processes; (b) the use of SHETRAN makes possible the impact assessment to be accessible for any model grid square within the study basin; (c) the use of a statistical-stochastic downscaling method facilitates the generation of the synthetic series with unlimited length. It makes possible robust hydrological impact assessments if uncertainties related to the global climate model, regional climate model, greenhouse gas emission scenario, downscaling method, hydrological model and observational data are considered.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136845
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Evora, Inst Mediterranean Agr & Environm Sci ICAAM, Evora, Portugal
2.CEMADEN Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat D, Dept Hydrol, Sao Paulo, Brazil
3.Univ Lusofona Human & Technol, Dept Aeronaut & Transports, Res Unit DREAMS, Lisbon, Portugal
4.Univ Aveiro, CESAM Ctr Environm & Marine Res, Aveiro, Portugal
5.Univ Aveiro, Dept Environm & Planning, Aveiro, Portugal
6.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England
7.Univ Lisbon, Fac Sci, CE3C, Lisbon, Portugal
8.Polytech Inst Leiria, Sch Technol & Management, Leiria, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Zhang, Rong,Corte-Real, Joao,Moreira, Madalena,et al. Downscaling climate change of water availability, sediment yield and extreme events: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(6):2947-2963
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