globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1271
WOS记录号: WOS:000466805300003
论文题名:
Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 degrees C increase in global warming
作者: Bhowmick, Mansi; Sahany, Sandeep; Mishra, Saroj K.
通讯作者: Bhowmick, Mansi
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: south Asia ; extreme rainfall ; annual precipitation ; global warming
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; VARIABILITY ; 1.5-DEGREES-C
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Using all ensemble members of NCAR CCSM4 for historical natural, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from CMIP5, we analyse changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the south Asian region for every 0.5 degrees C increase in global warming. An increase in mean annual precipitation is projected over majority of the south Asian region with increased levels of warming. Over Indian land, the spatially-averaged annual mean precipitation shows an increase in the range of similar to 2-14% based on the RCP scenario and level of warming. However, a decrease in mean annual precipitation is projected over northwest parts of the Indian sub-continent and the equatorial Indian Ocean with increased levels of warming. In general, we find multifold increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding oceans. Over Indian land, frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes show up to three-fold increase under both RCP scenarios for global warming levels in the range of 1.5 degrees C-2.5 degrees C. With further increase in warming we find that the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes could show a massive four-to six-fold increase over majority of Indian land. Notably, unlike the projected increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes, the projected change in annual mean precipitation is found to be insignificant in a 1.5 degrees C warmer world, over majority of the south Asian region, under both RCP scenarios. Given the projected large increase in frequency of daily precipitation extremes with increased levels of warming, our study provides scientific support to the recommendations of the Paris Agreement of 2015.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136861
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: IIT Delhi, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi, India

Recommended Citation:
Bhowmick, Mansi,Sahany, Sandeep,Mishra, Saroj K.. Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 degrees C increase in global warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(5)
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