The frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events are increasing with global change, yet we lack predictions and empirical evidence for the ability of wild populations to persist and adapt in response to these events. Here, we used Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection to evaluate the adaptive potential of Lasthenia fremontii, a herbaceous winter annual that is endemic to seasonally flooded wetlands in California, to alternative flooding regimes that occur during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The results indicate that populations may exhibit greater adaptive potential in response to dry years than wet years, and that the relative performance of populations will change across climate scenarios. More generally, our findings show that extreme climate events can substantially change the potential for populations to adapt to climate change by modulating the expression of standing genetic variation and mean fitness.
1.Purdue Univ, Dept Biol Sci, 915 W State St, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 2.Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Evolut Ecol & Organismal Biol, Riverside, CA 92521 USA 3.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA 4.Univ Colorado, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Campus Box 334, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
Recommended Citation:
Torres-Martinez, Lorena,McCarten, Niall,Emery, Nancy C.. The adaptive potential of plant populations in response to extreme climate events[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2019-01-01,22(5):866-874