globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0075.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000465136000005
论文题名:
Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles
作者: Hogan, Emily1; Nicholas, Robert E.2; Keller, Klaus2,3; Eilts, Stephanie1; Sriver, Ryan L.1
通讯作者: Hogan, Emily
刊名: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期:9, 页码:2591-2603
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme events ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Temperature ; Climate models ; Model output statistics
WOS关键词: INTERMEDIATE-COMPLEXITY MODEL ; MIDLATITUDE ATMOSPHERIC JET ; VALUE STATISTICS ; TOTAL-ENERGY ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; FLUCTUATIONS ; IMPACTS ; INDEXES ; YIELDS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136902
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作者单位: 1.Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61820 USA
2.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
3.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

Recommended Citation:
Hogan, Emily,Nicholas, Robert E.,Keller, Klaus,et al. Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019-01-01,32(9):2591-2603
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