globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.01.033
WOS记录号: WOS:000461534800017
论文题名:
Potential effects of climate change on Brazil's land use policy for renewable energy from sugarcane
作者: Granco, Gabriel1; Caldas, Marcellus1; De Marco Jr, Paulo2
通讯作者: Granco, Gabriel
刊名: RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
ISSN: 0921-3449
EISSN: 1879-0658
出版年: 2019
卷: 144, 页码:158-168
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Land use policy ; Zoning ; Climate change policy ; Biofuels ; Sustainability ; Ecological niche model
WOS关键词: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; FOOD SECURITY ; SAO-PAULO ; HABITAT SUITABILITY ; ETHANOL-PRODUCTION ; EXPANSION ; CONSERVATION ; IMPACTS ; FUTURE ; RISKS
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Brazil, in its intended nationally determined contribution protocol on the Paris Agreement, set to enhancement the usage of energy from sugarcane. To sustainably meet this goal, the Brazilian government rely on the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (SAZ). The SAZ, based on soil, climate, and land use conditions, defines as suitable 63 million hectares (Mha). Such an area would suffice the future demand for sugarcane. However, climate change impacts on the climate conditions necessary to grow sugarcane may promote a mismatch between the SAZ and future suitability. Our goal is to examine the effects of climate change on the SAZ policy. We developed ecological niche models to identify the suitability criteria and generate scenarios under 17 global climate models listed in the IPCC 5 for 2050. An ensemble of the 17 scenarios identifies areas of estimation congruence thus indicating smaller uncertainty regarding the suitability of these areas. Areas of high congruence (above 70% of prediction) encompass 1.53 Mha by 2050, a reduction of 97.5% compared to SAZ. Including areas of high congruence outside of the SAZ increases the suitable area to 7 Mha. The public and private sector in Brazil needs to develop large-scale adaptation strategies such as improving the research cycle of sugarcane varieties and reducing yield gaps by advancing the management of sugarcane fields to propel Brazil into fulfilling its Paris Agreement commitment.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136949
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Kansas State Univ, Dept Geog, 1002 Seaton Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA
2.Univ Fed Goias, Inst Ciencias Biol, Dept Ecol, Bloco ICB 4,Campus 2 UFG,Ave Esperanca S-N, BR-690900 Goiania, Go, Brazil

Recommended Citation:
Granco, Gabriel,Caldas, Marcellus,De Marco Jr, Paulo. Potential effects of climate change on Brazil's land use policy for renewable energy from sugarcane[J]. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2019-01-01,144:158-168
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