globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101088
WOS记录号: WOS:000466496900006
论文题名:
Monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones: A new information-modeling tool to reduce the risk
作者: Varotsos, Costas A.1; Krapivin, Vladimir F.2; Soldatov, Vladimir Yu2
通讯作者: Varotsos, Costas A.
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
ISSN: 2212-4209
出版年: 2019
卷: 36
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Tropical cyclones disasters ; Information theory ; Franklin ; Harvey ; Irma and Katia tropical cyclones ; Cyclone forecasting
WOS关键词: PREDICTION ; SST
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Tropical cyclones are natural meteorological phenomena that are sometimes beneficial and sometimes dangerous. Beneficial because they can carry rain in the dry areas and transfer heat from the tropical regions to the higher latitudes. Dangerous because they can cause many disasters, such as heavy rain, strong winds, heavy shore storm waves and tornadoes. Of course, the extent of these disasters, which are very dangerous to people's life, depends largely on the intensity, size and location of this phenomenon. For these reasons, the development of reliable models for timely forecasting and monitoring of these phenomena is vital, especially as climate change is thought to increase both their frequency and intensity. This paper proposes an information-modeling tracker (IMT) of tropical cyclones based on the cluster algorithm to assess the instability of the atmosphere-ocean system. To this end, an instability indicator of the atmosphere-ocean system (IIAOS) is developed to form the basis for IMT synthesis and to be used as a precursor for the onset of tropical cyclones. Harmonization of IIAOS with the well-established Saffir-Simpson scale is carried out allowing the assessment of tropical cyclones characteristics, including their strength, and providing the basis for real-time atmosphere-ocean diagnostics. Finally, the IMT results obtained for a set of tropical cyclones (e.g., Franklin, Harvey, Irma and Katia) are presented and can be characterized as encouraging. Therefore, the functional IMT structure synthesized in this study can be used reliably as part of the global ocean monitoring system to reduce the risk from tropical cyclones.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136975
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Athens, Fac Phys, Dept Environm Phys & Meteorol, Univ Campus Bldg Phys 5, Athens 15784, Greece
2.Russian Acad Sci, Kotelnikov Inst Radioengn & Elect, Moscow, Russia

Recommended Citation:
Varotsos, Costas A.,Krapivin, Vladimir F.,Soldatov, Vladimir Yu. Monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones: A new information-modeling tool to reduce the risk[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,2019-01-01,36
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