Plant functional indicators of vegetation response to climate change, past present and future: II. Modal plant functional types as response indicators for present and future climates
An assessment of plant functional indicators of vegetation response to climate change requires a science-based evaluation of functional linkages between plants and climate. This paper addresses the hypotheses outlined in the preceding paper: 1) A whole-plant system of modal plant functional types (PFTs) based on a core set of functional traits can provide an improved alternative to PFTs and traits used so far in models of vegetation response to climate change; 2) Modal PFTs are more efficient indicators of vegetation response to climate change than individual traits; 3) Improved plant functional selection criteria can lead to improved parameters in Earth System and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. Present-day (1975 centred) plant-climate relationships were analyzed within a global climatic framework of 1327 (200 m(2)) sample sites covering all major biomes. Five regions were selected for their range of bioclimatic gradients (arctic-boreal; cool temperate-subtropical; humid equatorial; hot, cold deserts). Biophysical site data were recorded along gradient oriented transects (gradsects) using a standard protocol that included all vascular plant taxa and modal PFTs. Regression, ordination and species distribution modeling were used to assess plant-climate indicator values against ten bioclimatic variables including extremes of contemporary thermal, light (energy) and moisture availability and estimates for 'present' (1975) and year 2100 climate scenarios. Modal PFTs and individual traits were highly correlated in differing patterns with bioclimate in each of the five regions in both climate scenarios with PFTs being the best predictors. Each of the three hypotheses is supported by these results, indicating that preference should be given to modal assemblages rather than individual traits as response parameters in predictive vegetation models. The indicators identified here are but one element of the highly complex array of other factors that influence vegetation response to terrestrial environmental change such as resource use, species acclimation, invasive species and human population pressure.
Ctr Biodivers Management, POB 120, Yungaburra, Qld 4884, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Gillison, Andrew N.. Plant functional indicators of vegetation response to climate change, past present and future: II. Modal plant functional types as response indicators for present and future climates[J]. FLORA,2019-01-01,254:31-58