globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02255-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000469431400014
论文题名:
Lake Level Prediction using Feed Forward and Recurrent Neural Networks
作者: Hrnjica, Bahrudin1; Bonacci, Ognjen2
通讯作者: Hrnjica, Bahrudin
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:7, 页码:2471-2484
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ANN ; LSTM ; Time series prediction ; Lake level ; Karst hydrology
WOS关键词: WATER-LEVEL ; BACKPROPAGATION ; FLUCTUATIONS
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

The protection of high quality fresh water in times of global climate changes is of tremendous importance since it is the key factor of local demographic and economic development. One such fresh water source is Vrana Lake, located on the completely karstified Island of Cres in Croatia. Over the last few decades a severe and dangerous decrease of the lake level has been documented. In order to develop a reliable lake level prediction, the application of the artificial neural networks (ANN) was used for the first time. The paper proposes time-series forecasting models based on the monthly measurements of the lake level during the last 38 years, capable to predict 6 or 12 months ahead. In order to gain the best possible model performance, the forecasting models were built using two types of ANN: the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN), and the feed forward neural network (FFNN). Instead of classic lagged data set, the proposed models were trained with the set of sequences with different length created from the time series data. The models were trained with the same set of the training parameters in order to establish the same conditions for the performance analysis. Based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R) the performance analysis shown that both model types can achieve satisfactory results. The analysis also revealed that regardless of the model types, they outperform classic ANN models based on datasets with fixed number of features and one month the prediction period. Analysis also revealed that the proposed models outperform classic time series forecasting models based on ARIMA and other similar methods .


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136995
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Bihac, Fac Tech Sci, Bihac, Bosnia & Herceg
2.Univ Split, Fac Civil Engn Architecture & Geodesy Croatia, Split, Croatia

Recommended Citation:
Hrnjica, Bahrudin,Bonacci, Ognjen. Lake Level Prediction using Feed Forward and Recurrent Neural Networks[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(7):2471-2484
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Hrnjica, Bahrudin]'s Articles
[Bonacci, Ognjen]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Hrnjica, Bahrudin]'s Articles
[Bonacci, Ognjen]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Hrnjica, Bahrudin]‘s Articles
[Bonacci, Ognjen]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.