globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/w11050897
WOS记录号: WOS:000472680400027
论文题名:
Projected Rainfall Erosivity Over Central Asia Based on CMIP5 Climate Models
作者: Duulatov, Eldiiar1,2,3; Chen, Xi1,2; Amanambu, Amobichukwu C.1,2,4; Ochege, Friday U.1,2,5; Orozbaev, Rustam3,6; Issanova, Gulnura7,8,9; Omurakunova, Gulkaiyr1,2
通讯作者: Chen, Xi
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: rainfall erosivity ; Central Asia ; GCMs ; soil erosion ; climate change
WOS关键词: SOIL-EROSION ; SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS ; GLACIER CHANGES ; TIEN-SHAN ; LAND-USE ; PRECIPITATION ; WATER ; IMPACT ; BASIN ; RUSLE
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Climate change-induced precipitation variability is the leading cause of rainfall erosivity that leads to excessive soil losses in most countries of the world. In this paper, four global climate models (GCMs) were used to characterize the spatiotemporal prediction of rainfall erosivity and assess the effect of variations of rainfall erosivity in Central Asia. The GCMs (BCCCSM1-1, IPSLCM5BLR, MIROC5, and MPIESMLR) were statistically downscaled using the delta method under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 for two time periods: Near and Far future (2030s and 2070s). These GCMs data were used to estimate rainfall erosivity and its projected changes over Central Asia. WorldClim data was used as the present baseline precipitation scenario for the study area. The rainfall erosivity (R) factor of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was used to determine rainfall erosivity. The results show an increase in the future periods of the annual rainfall erosivity compared to the baseline. For all GCMs, with an average change in rainfall erosivity of about 5.6% (424.49 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1)) in 2030s and 9.6% (440.57 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1)) in 2070s as compared to the baseline of 402 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1). The magnitude of the change varies with the GCMs, with the largest change being 26.6% (508.85 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1)), occurring in the MIROC-5 RCP8.5 scenario in the 2070s. Although annual rainfall erosivity shows a steady increase, IPSLCM5ALR (both RCPs and periods) shows a decrease in the average erosivity. Higher rainfall amounts were the prime causes of increasing spatial-temporal rainfall erosivity.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136998
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Natl Acad Sci Kyrgyz Republ, Inst Geol, 30 Erkindik, Bishkek 720040, Kyrgyzstan
4.Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
5.Univ Port Harcourt, Dept Geog & Environm Management, East West Rd,PMB 5323 Choba, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
6.Amer Univ Cent Asia, Appl Geol Dept, 7-6 Aaly Tokombaev, Bishkek 720060, Kyrgyzstan
7.Al Farabi Kazakh Natl Univ, Fac Geog & Environm Sci, Ave Al Farabi 71, Alma Ata 050040, Kazakhstan
8.Abai Kazakh Natl Pedag Univ, Inst Nat Sci & Geog, Ave Dostyk 13, Alma Ata 050010, Kazakhstan
9.Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia Almaty, Ave Al Farabi 75 V, Alma Ata 050060, Kazakhstan

Recommended Citation:
Duulatov, Eldiiar,Chen, Xi,Amanambu, Amobichukwu C.,et al. Projected Rainfall Erosivity Over Central Asia Based on CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(5)
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