KENDALL TREND TEST
; MANN-KENDALL
; BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE
; TEMPERATURE
; PRODUCTS
; IMPACTS
; MODELS
; TESTS
WOS学科分类:
Water Resources
WOS研究方向:
Water Resources
英文摘要:
We assessed the changes in meteorological drought severity and drought return periods during cropping seasons in Afghanistan for the period of 1901 to 2010. The droughts in the country were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Global Precipitation Climatology Center rainfall and Climate Research Unit temperature data both at 0.5 degrees resolutions were used for this purpose. Seasonal drought return periods were estimated using the values of the SPEI fitted with the best distribution function. Trends in climatic variables and SPEI were assessed using modified Mann-Kendal trend test, which has the ability to remove the influence of long-term persistence on trend significance. The study revealed increases in drought severity and frequency in Afghanistan over the study period. Temperature, which increased up to 0.14 degrees C/decade, was the major factor influencing the decreasing trend in the SPEI values in the northwest and southwest of the country during rice- and corn-growing seasons, whereas increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were the cause of a decrease in SPEI during wheat-growing season. We concluded that temperature plays a more significant role in decreasing the SPEI values and, therefore, more severe droughts in the future are expected due to global warming.
1.Univ Teknol Malaysia, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Dept Water & Environm Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia 2.Fed Univ Dutse, Dept Environm Sci, Fac Sci, PMB 7156, Dutse, Nigeria 3.Islamic Azad Univ, Sci & Res Branch, Dept Civil Engn, Tehran, Iran 4.Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Fac Water Resource Management, Balochistan 90150, Pakistan 5.Lulea Univ Technol, Civil Environm & Nat Resources Engn, S-97187 Lulea, Sweden 6.Ton Duc Thang Univ, Sustainable Dev Civil Engn Res Grp, Fac Civil Engn, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 7.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 8.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Qutbudin, Ishanch,Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi,Sharafati, Ahmad,et al. Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(5)