globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s10618-018-0606-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000467634900010
论文题名:
Concept drift over geological times: predictive modeling baselines for analyzing the mammalian fossil record
作者: Zliobaite, Indre1,2
通讯作者: Zliobaite, Indre
刊名: DATA MINING AND KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY
ISSN: 1384-5810
EISSN: 1573-756X
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:3, 页码:773-803
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Transfer learning ; Concept drift ; Fossil data ; Paleoclimate reconstruction ; Evolution ; Mammals ; Ecometrics
WOS关键词: TURKANA BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; COEXISTENCE APPROACH ; EAST-AFRICA ; EVOLUTION ; PRECIPITATION ; COMMUNITIES ; ECOMETRICS ; HISTORY
WOS学科分类: Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Information Systems
WOS研究方向: Computer Science
英文摘要:

Fossils are the remains organisms from earlier geological periods preserved in sedimentary rock. The global fossil record documents and characterizes the evidence about organisms that existed at different times and places during the Earth's history. One of the major directions in computational analysis of such data is to reconstruct environmental conditions and track climate changes over millions of years. Distribution of fossil animals in space and time make informative features for such modeling, yet concept drift presents one of the main computational challenges. As species continuously go extinct and new species originate, animal communities today are different from the communities of the past, and the communities at different times in the past are different from each other. The fossil record is continuously increasing as new fossils and localities are being discovered, but it is not possible to observe or measure their environmental contexts directly, because the time is gone. Labeled data linking organisms to climate is available only for the present day, where climatic conditions can be measured. The approach is to train models on the present day and use them to predict climatic conditions over the past. But since species representation is continuously changing, transfer learning approaches are needed to make models applicable and climate estimates to be comparable across geological times. Here we discuss predictive modeling settings for such paleoclimate reconstruction from the fossil record. We compare and experimentally analyze three baseline approaches for predictive paleoclimate reconstruction: (1) averaging over habitats of species, (2) using presence-absence of species as features, and (3) using functional characteristics of species communities as features. Our experiments on the present day African data and a case study on the fossil data from the Turkana Basin over the last 7 million of years suggest that presence-absence approaches are the most accurate over short time horizons, while species community approaches, also known as ecometrics, are the most informative over longer time horizons when, due to ongoing evolution, taxonomic relations between the present day and fossil species become more and more uncertain.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137035
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Helsinki, Dept Comp Sci, POB 68, Helsinki 00014, Finland
2.Univ Helsinki, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, POB 68, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Zliobaite, Indre. Concept drift over geological times: predictive modeling baselines for analyzing the mammalian fossil record[J]. DATA MINING AND KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY,2019-01-01,33(3):773-803
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