globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/jmse7050135
WOS记录号: WOS:000470965000015
论文题名:
Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on United States Major Hurricane Landfall Frequency
作者: Levin, Emma L.1; Murakami, Hiroyuki2,3
通讯作者: Murakami, Hiroyuki
刊名: JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
EISSN: 2077-1312
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: major hurricane landfall drought ; climate change and variability ; climate modeling
WOS关键词: TROPICAL CYCLONES ; SIMULATION
WOS学科分类: Oceanography
WOS研究方向: Oceanography
英文摘要:

Although anthropogenic climate change has contributed to warmer ocean temperatures that are seemingly more favorable for Atlantic hurricane development, no major hurricanes made landfall in the United States between 2006 and 2016. The U.S., therefore, experienced a major hurricane landfall drought during those years. Using the high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 25 km grid High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) global climate model, the present study shows that increases in anthropogenic forcing, due to increases in greenhouse gasses, are associated with fewer long-duration major hurricane landfall droughts in the U.S., which implies an increase in major hurricane landfall frequency. We create six different fixed-distance buffers' that artificially circle the United States coastline in 100 km radial increments and can compensate for the bias in hurricane landfall calculations with six-hourly datasets. Major hurricane landfall frequencies are computed by applying the buffer zones to the six-hourly observed and simulated storm track datasets, which are then compared with the observed recorded major hurricane frequencies. We found that the major hurricane landfall frequencies generated with the 200 km buffer using the six-hourly observed best-track dataset are most correlated with the observed recorded major hurricane landfall frequencies. Using HiFLOR with an implemented buffer system, we found less frequent projections of long-duration major hurricane landfall drought events in controlled scenarios with greater anthropogenic global warming, which is independent on the radius of the coastal buffer. These results indicate an increase in U.S. major hurricane landfall frequencies with an increase in anthropogenic warming, which could pose a substantial threat to coastal communities in the U.S.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137065
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Paul D Schreiber High Sch, Port Washington, NY 11050 USA
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA
3.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80301 USA

Recommended Citation:
Levin, Emma L.,Murakami, Hiroyuki. Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on United States Major Hurricane Landfall Frequency[J]. JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,2019-01-01,7(5)
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