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In mountain-basin systems in the arid region, grasslands are sensitive to the impacts of climate change and human activities. In this study, we aimed to resolve two key scientific issues: (1) distinguish and explain the laws of grassland ecosystem deterioration in a mountain-basin system and identify the key factors related; and (2) evaluate whether damaged grasslands ecosystem have the potential for natural revegetation. Hence, by combining spatial analysis with statistical methods, we studied the trends of the deterioration of the grassland ecosystem and its spatial characteristics in Kulusitai, a mountain-basin system in the arid region of Northwest China. According to our results, vegetation coverage and productivity exhibited significant decreasing trends, while the temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) exhibited a significant increasing trend. Drainage of groundwater, because of increase in irrigation for the expanded irrigated area around Kulusitai, and climate warming were the critical triggers that leaded to the soil drought. Soil drought and overgrazing, resulting from the impact of human activities, were the main factors responsible for the deterioration of the grassland ecosystems. However, limiting the number of livestock to a reasonable scale and reducing the irrigated area may help to increase the soil moisture, thus promoting the germination of soil seed banks and facilitating the normal growth of grassland vegetation. Furthermore, based on analysis of the phenology of the grassland vegetation, the reasonable period for harvesting and storage is from July 29 to August 5. The results of this study provide a scientific basis and practical guide for restoring mountain-basin grassland systems in arid regions.