globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0179.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000467313300001
论文题名:
Subsampling Impact on the Climate Change Signal over Poland Based on Simulations from Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling
作者: Mezghani, Abdelkader1; Dobler, Andreas1; Benestad, Rasmus1; Haugen, Jan Erik1; Parding, Kajsa M.1; Piniewski, Mikolaj2,3; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.2,4
通讯作者: Mezghani, Abdelkader
刊名: JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 1558-8424
EISSN: 1558-8432
出版年: 2019
卷: 58, 期:5, 页码:1061-1078
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Statistical techniques ; Climate models ; Ensembles ; Model comparison ; Model output statistics
WOS关键词: CHANGE SCENARIOS ; EURO-CORDEX ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; MODELS ; TEMPERATURE ; UNCERTAINTY ; VARIABILITY ; SELECTION ; CMIP5
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Most impact studies using downscaled climate data as input assume that the selection of few global climate models (GCMs) representing the largest spread covers the likely range of future changes. This study shows that including more GCMs can result in a very different behavior. We tested the influence of selecting various subsets of GCMs on the climate change signal over Poland from simulations based on dynamical and empirical-statistical downscaling methods. When the climate variable is well simulated by the GCM, such as temperature, results showed that both downscaling methods agree on a warming over Poland by up to 2 degrees or 5 degrees C assuming intermediate or high emission scenarios, respectively, by 2071-2100. As a less robust simulated signal through GCMs, precipitation is expected to increase by up to 10% by 2071-2100 assuming the intermediate emission scenario. However, these changes are uncertain when the high emission scenario and the end of the twenty-first century are of interest. Further, an additional bootstrap test revealed an underestimation in the warming rate varying from 0.5 degrees to more than 4 degrees C over Poland that was found to be largely influenced by the selection of few driving GCMs instead of considering the full range of possible climate model outlooks. Furthermore, we found that differences between various combinations of small subsets from the GCM ensemble of opportunities can be as large as the climate change signal.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137273
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway
2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
3.Warsaw Univ Life Sci, Dept Hydraul Engn, Warsaw, Poland
4.Polish Acad Sci, Inst Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland

Recommended Citation:
Mezghani, Abdelkader,Dobler, Andreas,Benestad, Rasmus,et al. Subsampling Impact on the Climate Change Signal over Poland Based on Simulations from Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling[J]. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,58(5):1061-1078
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Mezghani, Abdelkader]'s Articles
[Dobler, Andreas]'s Articles
[Benestad, Rasmus]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Mezghani, Abdelkader]'s Articles
[Dobler, Andreas]'s Articles
[Benestad, Rasmus]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Mezghani, Abdelkader]‘s Articles
[Dobler, Andreas]‘s Articles
[Benestad, Rasmus]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.