RISK-ASSESSMENT
; DAMAGE
; MODEL
; PRECIPITATION
; SENSITIVITY
; RAINFALL
; RUNOFF
; EUROPE
WOS学科分类:
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
; Water Resources
WOS研究方向:
Geology
; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
; Water Resources
英文摘要:
This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included the Pampanga River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines, the Solo River Basin (SRB) in Indonesia, the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Cambodia and Vietnam, and the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand. Flood damage to rice crops was assessed by flood damage functions considering flood depth and duration and the growth stage of rice plants. Flood characteristics such as flood depth, duration, and distribution were computed using the rainfall-runoff-inundation model to assess flood hazards under the present and future climatic conditions produced by MRI-AGCM3.2S. The damage assessment methodology for rice crops employed in this study was verified using data on past flood events. Then, flood damage assessment was conducted for both the present climate (1979-2003) and future climate (2075-2099) conditions, using MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation datasets. Flood damage was assessed for worst cases chosen from each climate period and for floods of 50- and 100-year return periods with different rainfall patterns chosen from each climate scenario. The results of flood hazard and damage assessment show that the flood inundation area for a 100-year flood may increase in the future by 20% in PRB; by 66% in SRB; by 27% in LMRB; and by 27% in CPRB. The flood damage area of paddy fields for a 100-year flood may also increase in the future by 16% in PRB; by 55% in SRB; by 23% in LMRB; and by 13% in CPRB.
1.Publ Works Res Inst, Int Ctr Water Hazard & Risk Management ICHARM, 1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 2.United Nations Univ, Inst Water Environm & Hlth UNU INWEH, Hamilton, ON, Canada 3.Natl Inst Land & Infrastruct Management, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 4.Publ Works Res Inst, Eros & Sediment Control Res Grp, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 5.Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto, Japan 6.Univ Yamanashi, Int Res Ctr River Basin Environm, Kofu, Yamanashi, Japan 7.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan 8.Publ Works Dept, Nagasaki Prefectural Off, Nagasaki, Nagasaki Prefec, Japan 9.Infrastruct Dev Inst, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Shrestha, Badri Bhakta,Perera, Edangodage Duminda Pradeep,Kudo, Shun,et al. Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2019-01-01,97(1):157-192