globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/w11051032
WOS记录号: WOS:000472680400162
论文题名:
Extreme Precipitation Spatial Analog: In Search of an Alternative Approach for Future Extreme Precipitation in Urban Hydrological Studies
作者: Wang, Ariel Kexuan1; Dominguez, Francina2; Schmidt, Arthur Robert1
通讯作者: Wang, Ariel Kexuan
刊名: WATER
EISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: spatial analog ; extreme precipitation ; future precipitation at urban scale ; RCM uncertainty
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RAINFALL ; RESOLUTION ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; RCM ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS ; EVENTS ; MAPS
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as analogs that behave like potential future precipitation for other locations at small spatio-temporal scales. Extreme precipitation frequency quantiles of a 3.16 km(2) catchment in the Chicago area, computed using simulations from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with L-moment method, were compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (NA14) quantiles at other cities. Variances in raw NARCCAP historical quantiles from different combinations of RCMs, General Circulation Models (GCMs), and remapping methods are much larger than those in NA14. The performance for NARCCAP quantiles tend to depend more on the RCMs than the GCMs, especially at durations less than 24-h. The uncertainties in bias-corrected future quantiles of NARCCAP are still large compared to those of NA14, and increase with rainfall duration. Results show that future 3-h and 30-day rainfall in Chicago will be similar to historical rainfall from Memphis, TN and Springfield, IL, respectively. This indicates that the spatial analog is potentially useful, but highlights the fact that the analogs may depend on the duration of the rainfall of interest.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137356
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
2.Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

Recommended Citation:
Wang, Ariel Kexuan,Dominguez, Francina,Schmidt, Arthur Robert. Extreme Precipitation Spatial Analog: In Search of an Alternative Approach for Future Extreme Precipitation in Urban Hydrological Studies[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(5)
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