In terms of climate change and precipitation, there is large interest in how large-scale climatic features affect regional rainfall amount and rainfall occurrence. Large-scale climate elements need to be downscaled to the regional level for hydrologic applications. Here, a new Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) called the Bayesian-NHMM is presented for downscaling and predicting of multisite daily rainfall during rainy season over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB). The Bayesian-NHMM provides a Bayesian method for parameters estimation. The model avoids the risk to have no solutions for parameter estimation, which often occurs in the traditional NHMM that uses point estimates of parameters. The Bayesian-NHMM accurately captures seasonality and interannual variability of rainfall amount and wet days during the rainy season. The model establishes a link between large-scale meteorological characteristics and local precipitation patterns. It also provides a more stable and efficient method to estimate parameters in the model. These results suggest that prediction of daily precipitation could be improved by the suggested new Bayesian-NHMM method, which can be helpful for water resources management and research on climate change.
1.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Hohai Univ, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 3.Hohai Univ, Natl Cooperat Innovat Ctr Water Safety & Hydrosci, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Lund Univ, Dept Water Resources Engn, POB 118, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden 5.Lund Univ, Ctr Middle Eastern Studies, POB 118, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden 6.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Cao, Qing,Hao, Zhenchun,Yuan, Feifei,et al. On the Predictability of Daily Rainfall during Rainy Season over the Huaihe River Basin[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(5)