globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044013
论文题名:
Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change?
作者: Angshuman Modak; Govindasamy Bala; Long Cao; Ken Caldeira
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-04-07
卷: 11, 期:4
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Many previous studies have shown that a solar forcing must be greater than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change but a process-based mechanistic explanation is lacking in the literature. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the lower efficacy of solar forcing compared to an equivalent CO2 forcing. Radiative forcing is estimated using the Gregory method that regresses top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux against the change in global mean surface temperature. For a 2.25% increase in solar irradiance that produces the same long term global mean warming as a doubling of CO2 concentration, we estimate that the efficacy of solar forcing is ~80% relative to CO2 forcing in the NCAR CAM5 climate model. We find that the fast tropospheric cloud adjustments especially over land and stratospheric warming in the first four months cause the slope of the regression between the TOA net radiative fluxes and surface temperature to be steeper in the solar forcing case. This steeper slope indicates a stronger net negative feedback and hence correspondingly a larger solar forcing than CO2 forcing for the same equilibrium surface warming. Evidence is provided that rapid land surface warming in the first four months sets up a land-sea contrast that markedly affects radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter over this period. We also confirm the robustness of our results using simulations from the Hadley Centre climate model. Our study has important implications for estimating the magnitude of climate change caused by volcanic eruptions, solar geoengineering and past climate changes caused by change in solar irradiance such as Maunder minimum.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044013
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13747
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India;Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India;Interdisciplinary center for water research, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-12, India;School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310027, People’s Republic of China;Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

Recommended Citation:
Angshuman Modak,Govindasamy Bala,Long Cao,et al. Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change?[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(4)
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