全球变化知识资源中心

In recent years, with the increase of annual average temperature and the decrease of annual precipitation in Beijing, the fragility of Beijing's energy system has become more and more prominent, especially the balance of electricity supply and demand in extreme weather. In the context of unstable supply of new and renewable energies, it is imperative to strengthen the ability of the energy system to adapt to climate change. This study first simulated climate change in Beijing based on regional climate data. At the same time, the Statistical Program for Social Sciences was used to perform multiple linear regression analysis on Beijing's future power demand and to analyze the impact of climate change on electricity supply in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Based on the analysis of the impact of climate change on energy supply, a multi-objective optimization model for new and renewable energy structure adjustment combined with climate change was proposed. The model was then used to predict the optimal power generation of the five energy types under different conditions in 2020. Through comparison of the results, it was found that the development amount and development ratio of various energy forms underwent certain changes. In the case of climate change, the priority development order of new and renewable energies in Beijing was: external electricity > other renewable energy > solar energy > wind energy > biomass energy. The energy structure adjustment program in the context of climate change will contribute to accelerating the development and utilization of new and renewable energies, alleviating the imbalance between power supply and demand and improving energy security.