globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.053
WOS记录号: WOS:000463688800088
论文题名:
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County
作者: Burillo, Daniel1; Chester, Mikhail V.1; Pincetl, Stephanie2; Fournier, Eric2
通讯作者: Burillo, Daniel
刊名: ENERGY POLICY
ISSN: 0301-4215
EISSN: 1873-6777
出版年: 2019
卷: 128, 页码:943-953
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Electricity infrastructure ; Vulnerability assessment ; Capacity shortages ; Climate change ; Extreme heat ; Power outages
WOS关键词: THERMAL COMFORT ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; IMPACTS ; SYSTEMS ; DEMAND ; EFFICIENCY ; BUILDINGS ; ADAPTATION ; GENERATION ; STATE
WOS学科分类: Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Many studies have estimated the effects of rising air temperatures due to climate change on electricity infrastructure systems, but none have quantified impacts in terms of potential outages down to the neighborhood scale. Using high-resolution climate projections, infrastructure maps, and forecasts of peak electricity demand for Los Angeles County (LAC), we estimated vulnerabilities in the electricity infrastructure to 2060. We considered rising air temperatures under IPCC RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at 2 km(2) grid cell resolution, two local government population growth scenarios, different efficiency implementations of new residential and commercial buildings, air conditioners (AC), and higher AC penetration. Results were that generators, substations, and transmission lines could lose up to 20% of safe operating capacities (MW). Moreover, based on recent historical load factors for substations in the Southern California Edison service territory, 848-6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional capacity, distributed energy resources, and/or peak load shifting could be needed by 2060 to avoid hardware overloading and outages. If peak load is not mitigated, and/or additional infrastructure capacity not added, then all scenarios result in > 100% substation overloading in Santa Clarita, which would trigger automatic outages, and > 20% substation overloading in at least Lancaster, Palmdale, and Pomona in which protection gear could trip outages within 30 min. Several climate change adaptation options are discussed for electricity infrastructure and building stock with consideration for trade-offs in system stability and other energy and environmental goals.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137775
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Arizona State Univ, Dept Civil Environm & Sustainable Engn, 660S Coll Ave, Tempe, AZ 85281 USA
2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA

Recommended Citation:
Burillo, Daniel,Chester, Mikhail V.,Pincetl, Stephanie,et al. Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019-01-01,128:943-953
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