HUMAN HEALTH
; NATURAL DISASTER
; HURRICANE
; IMPACT
; INTENSITY
; CYCLONES
; TEMPERATURE
; FATALITIES
; ECONOMICS
; INCREASE
WOS学科分类:
Development Studies
; Economics
WOS研究方向:
Development Studies
; Business & Economics
英文摘要:
Extreme weather induced by climate change can have major consequences for human health. In this study, I quantify the effect of tropical storm frequency and severity on mortality using objective meteorological data and the universe of vital statistics records from a large developing country, Mexico. Using a measure of storm exposure that accounts for both windspeed dispersion and population density along the storm track, I project changes in past storm-related mortality under various scenarios of continued climate change, while holding population and income at contemporaneous levels. I find that storm related deaths would have risen under most climate change scenarios considered, with increases of as much as 52% or declines of as much as 10%, depending on the interplay between increasing storm severity and decreased frequency. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.