globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0862-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000466498300017
论文题名:
Synchronized failure of global crop production
作者: Mehrabi, Zia1,2; Ramankutty, Navin1,2
通讯作者: Mehrabi, Zia
刊名: NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
ISSN: 2397-334X
出版年: 2019
卷: 3, 期:5, 页码:780-786
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: ECOSYSTEM STABILITY ; FOOD ; PRICE ; AGRICULTURE ; RESILIENCE ; DISASTERS
WOS学科分类: Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
英文摘要:

Multiple breadbasket failure is a risk to global food security. However, there are no global analyses that have quantitatively assessed if global crop production has actually tended towards synchronized failure historically. We show that synchronization in production within major commodities such as maize and soybean has declined in recent decades, leading to increased global stability in production of these crops. In contrast, synchrony between crops has peaked, making global calorie production more unstable. Under the hypothetical event of complete synchronized failure we estimate simultaneous global production losses for rice, wheat, soybean and maize to lie between -17% and -34%. We find that offsetting these losses by reducing variation in production across all growing locations, and raising production ceilings in breadbaskets, are far more effective than strategies focused on reducing variability in breadbaskets alone or closing production gaps in low productive locations. Our findings suggest that maintaining asynchrony in the food system requires a central place in discussions of future food demand under mean climate change, population growth and consumption trends.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137824
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ British Columbia, UBC Sch Publ Policy & Global Affairs, Vancouver, BC, Canada
2.Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Mehrabi, Zia,Ramankutty, Navin. Synchronized failure of global crop production[J]. NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION,2019-01-01,3(5):780-786
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