globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000982
WOS记录号: WOS:000480682000009
论文题名:
Hands-on Tutorial on a Modeling Framework for Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Health
作者: Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.1; Sera, Francesco1; Gasparrini, Antonio1,2
通讯作者: Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
刊名: EPIDEMIOLOGY
ISSN: 1044-3983
EISSN: 1531-5487
出版年: 2019
卷: 30, 期:3, 页码:321-329
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Projections ; Health ; Impacts ; Mortality ; Tutorial ; Method
WOS关键词: HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY ; TEMPERATURE-RELATED MORTALITY ; COLD-RELATED MORTALITY ; PUBLIC-HEALTH ; UNCERTAINTY ; SCENARIOS ; DEATHS
WOS学科分类: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS研究方向: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
英文摘要:

Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task because of the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multidisciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content; http://links.lww.com/EDE/B504, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137903
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, 15-17 Tavistock Pl, London WC1H 9SH, England
2.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Stat Methodol, London, England

Recommended Citation:
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.,Sera, Francesco,Gasparrini, Antonio. Hands-on Tutorial on a Modeling Framework for Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Health[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY,2019-01-01,30(3):321-329
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