globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.290
WOS记录号: WOS:000459858500063
论文题名:
Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change
作者: Liao, Xinli1,2,3; Xu, Wei1,2,3; Zhang, Junlin1,2,3; Li, Ying1,2,3; Tian, Yugang4
通讯作者: Xu, Wei
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 663, 页码:644-653
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global climate change ; Rainstorm ; Population exposure ; Contribution rate ; Global scale
WOS关键词: PRECIPITATION ; FLOODS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rain-storms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rain-storms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137996
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
3.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
4.China Univ Geosci, Fac Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Liao, Xinli,Xu, Wei,Zhang, Junlin,et al. Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,663:644-653
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