Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rain-storms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rain-storms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.China Univ Geosci, Fac Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Liao, Xinli,Xu, Wei,Zhang, Junlin,et al. Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,663:644-653