全球变化知识资源中心

The faulty notion that population size is a fundamental driver of scarcity undergirds discourses of demographic trends as both threats and burdens. This claim of population-induced scarcity builds on well-worn "overpopulation" narratives which are often simplistic and repetitive: the finite planet and its natural resources cannot support the overly large and growing global population. In this article, we analyze three interrelated discourses that portray contemporary demographic trends as threats and burdens. The first two discourses surround young and aging populations. The predicted threat of volatile and fertile youth populations from the global South is juxtaposed to the supposed burden of a stagnant aging population in the North. Together, these two narratives are often used to warn of global power shifts from North to South and dangerous flows of people from South to North. The third discourse we consider draws on and extends these population fears into the realm of climate change and security where so-called climate refugees are perceived to threaten Northern borders while the poor communities they come from, especially in Africa, are portrayed as potential instigators of climate conflict and war. Demographic discourses of threat and burden impart negative values to these abstracted groups as "overpopulations" who consume too many resources, perpetuate scarcity, and increase uncertainty and risk now and into the future.