globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2019.0051
WOS记录号: WOS:000469227500019
论文题名:
Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model
作者: Alkhayuon, Hassan1; Ashwin, Peter1; Jackson, Laura C.2; Quinnu, Courtney1,3; Wood, Richard A.2
通讯作者: Ashwin, Peter
刊名: PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
ISSN: 1364-5021
EISSN: 1471-2946
出版年: 2019
卷: 475, 期:2225
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ; rate-induced tipping point ; ocean heat transport
WOS关键词: THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; STABILITY ; EQUILIBRIA ; SYSTEMS ; EXISTENCE ; REGIME ; SHIFTS
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC 'on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here, we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood et al. with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the 'on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO2 atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC.


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被引频次[WOS]:44   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138060
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Exeter, Dept Math, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England
2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Alkhayuon, Hassan,Ashwin, Peter,Jackson, Laura C.,et al. Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES,2019-01-01,475(2225)
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