globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000466523700033
论文题名:
Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
作者: Marvel, Kate1,2; Cook, Benjamin I.1; Bonfils, Celine J. W.3; Durack, Paul J.3; Smerdon, Jason E.4; Williams, A. Park4
通讯作者: Marvel, Kate
刊名: NATURE
ISSN: 0028-0836
EISSN: 1476-4687
出版年: 2019
卷: 569, 期:7754, 页码:59-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: NORTH-AMERICAN DROUGHT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; CMIP5 ; RECONSTRUCTIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; PACIFIC ; INDEX
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Although anthropogenic climate change is expected to have caused large shifts in temperature and rainfall, the detection of human influence on global drought has been complicated by large internal variability and the brevity of observational records. Here we address these challenges using reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index obtained with data from tree rings that span the past millennium. We show that three distinct periods are identifiable in climate models, observations and reconstructions during the twentieth century. In recent decades (1981 to present), the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence. Observations and reconstructions differ significantly from an expected pattern of greenhouse gas forcing around mid-century (1950-1975), coinciding with a global increase in aerosol forcing. In the first half of the century (1900-1949), however, a signal of greenhouse-gas-forced change is robustly detectable. Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as the beginning of the twentieth century.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138133
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA
3.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA USA
4.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA

Recommended Citation:
Marvel, Kate,Cook, Benjamin I.,Bonfils, Celine J. W.,et al. Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence[J]. NATURE,2019-01-01,569(7754):59-+
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