Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia;School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia;School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia;Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Acton, Australia;Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, USA;Queensland Herbarium, Department of Environment and Resource Management, Toowong, Australia;School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia;Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada;Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia;Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia;CSIRO Tropical Ecosystems Research Centre, Winnellie, Australia;Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Matthias M Boer,David M J S Bowman,Brett P Murphy,et al. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(6)
space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.