globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1816020116
WOS记录号: WOS:000467804000025
论文题名:
Global warming has increased global economic inequality
作者: Diffenbaugh, Noah S.1,2; Burke, Marshall1,3,4
通讯作者: Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
刊名: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期:20, 页码:9808-9813
语种: 英语
英文关键词: economic inequality ; global warming ; climate change attribution ; CMIP5
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; EMISSIONS ; INCOME
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17-31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is similar to 90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138304
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
2.Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
3.Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
4.Natl Bur Econ Res, Environm & Energy Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

Recommended Citation:
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.,Burke, Marshall. Global warming has increased global economic inequality[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(20):9808-9813
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