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The poor maintenance of social dwellings causes the possible building deficiencies to be significantly increased, especially when most of these dwellings have been built before any thermal standard and without considering the effect of climate change. Facades are one of the building elements which are most degraded by the contact with the exterior, and surface condensation is the most common cause. This study applies the calculation of surface condensation from ISO 13788 to a representative case of social dwelling in Spain for all climate zones, both in the current and 2050 scenarios. Risks of corrosion, mould formation, and surface condensation were studied in nine different points of the facade, which were validated by in-situ measurements. The results determined that there was a greater risk of condensation or mould depending on the climate zone, and thermal resistance significantly influenced data variation in future scenarios. The results also showed that an adequate ventilation generally decreased risks, removing the risk of mould and surface condensation by 2050. To predict the results obtained, a model based on artificial neural networks was generated, and it could also be used to estimate risks in the future.