globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000468595400001
论文题名:
Using MODIS estimates of fractional snow cover area to improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska
作者: Bennett, Katrina E.1,2,5; Cherry, Jessica E.1,2,3; Balk, Ben4; Lindsey, Scott3
通讯作者: Bennett, Katrina E.
刊名: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN: 1027-5606
EISSN: 1607-7938
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:5, 页码:2439-2459
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: LAND-SURFACE MODEL ; RIVER-ICE BREAKUP ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOLID PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; DEPLETION CURVES ; NORTHERN ALASKA ; GAP FRACTIONS ; WATER
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Remotely sensed snow cover observations provide an opportunity to improve operational snowmelt and streamflow forecasting in remote regions. This is particularly true in Alaska, where remote basins and a spatially and temporally sparse gaging network plague efforts to understand and forecast the hydrology of subarctic boreal basins and where climate change is leading to rapid shifts in basin function. In this study, the operational framework employed by the United States (US) National Weather Service, including the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, is adapted to integrate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remotely sensed observations of fractional snow cover area (fSCA) to determine if these data improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska river basins. Two versions of MODIS fSCA are tested against a base case extent of snow cover derived by aerial depletion curves: the MODIS 10A1 (MOD10A1) and the MODIS Snow Cover Area and Grain size (MODSCAG) product over the period 2000-2010. Observed runoff is compared to simulated runoff to calibrate both iterations of the model. MODIS-forced simulations have improved snow depletion timing compared with snow telemetry sites in the basins, with discernable increases in skill for the streamflow simulations. The MODSCAG fSCA version provides moderate increases in skill but is similar to the MOD10A1 results. The basins with the largest improvement in streamflow simulations have the sparsest streamflow observations. Considering the numerous low-quality gages (discontinuous, short, or unreliable) and ungauged systems throughout the high-latitude regions of the globe, this result is valuable and indicates the utility of the MODIS fSCA data in these regions. Additionally, while improvements in predicted discharge values are subtle, the snow model better represents the physical conditions of the snowpack and therefore provides more robust simulations, which are consistent with the US National Weather Service's move toward a physically based National Water Model. Physically based models may also be more capable of adapting to changing climates than statistical models corrected to past regimes. This work provides direction for both the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center and other forecast centers across the US to implement remote-sensing observations within their operational framework, to refine the representation of snow, and to improve streamflow forecasting skill in basins with few or poor-quality observations.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138561
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Alaska, Int Arctic Res Ctr, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
2.Univ Alaska, Water & Environm Res Ctr, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
3.Alaska Pacific River Forecast Ctr, Anchorage, AK 99502 USA
4.Deltares USA, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
5.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Earth & Environm Sci, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA

Recommended Citation:
Bennett, Katrina E.,Cherry, Jessica E.,Balk, Ben,et al. Using MODIS estimates of fractional snow cover area to improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2019-01-01,23(5):2439-2459
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