globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000468759000001
论文题名:
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing - insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity
作者: Fiedler, Stephanie1; Kinne, Stefan1; Huang, Wan Ting Katty2; Raisanen, Petri3; O'; Donnell, Declan3; Bellouin, Nicolas4; Stier, Philip5; Merikanto, Joonas3; van Noije, Twan6; Makkonen, Risto3,7; Lohmann, Ulrike2
通讯作者: Fiedler, Stephanie
刊名: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
ISSN: 1680-7316
EISSN: 1680-7324
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:10, 页码:6821-6841
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; OPTICAL-PROPERTIES ; TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ; RADIATIVE-TRANSFER ; SIMULATION ; PARAMETERIZATION ; SENSITIVITY ; FUTURE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; VARIABILITY
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to model-internal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from -0.4 to -0.9 W m(-2). The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m(-2), based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid-2000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The model-ensemble mean ERF is -0.54 W m(-2) for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and -0.59 W m(-2) for the pre-industrial era to the mid-2000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained pre-industrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138571
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Atmosphere Earth Syst, Hamburg, Germany
2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
3.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland
4.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
5.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England
6.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands
7.Univ Helsinki, Fac Sci, Inst Atmospher & Earth Syst Res Phys, Helsinki, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Fiedler, Stephanie,Kinne, Stefan,Huang, Wan Ting Katty,et al. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing - insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019-01-01,19(10):6821-6841
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