globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
WOS记录号: WOS:000469759100033
论文题名:
Climate change has likely already affected global food production
作者: Ray, Deepak K.1; West, Paul C.1; Clark, Michael2,3,4; Gerber, James S.1; Prishchepov, Alexander, V5; Chatterjee, Snigdhansu6
通讯作者: Ray, Deepak K.
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:5
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: WHEAT YIELDS ; RICE YIELDS ; TEMPERATURE ; MODELS ; TRENDS ; SCENARIOS ; SECURITY ; INCREASE ; IMPACTS ; CROPS
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops-barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at similar to 20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to similar to 1% average reduction (-3.5 X 10(13) kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138709
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm IonE, St Paul, MN 55108 USA
2.Univ Minnesota, Dept Nat Resources Sci & Management, St Paul, MN 55108 USA
3.Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Oxford, England
4.Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Populat Hlth, Oxford, England
5.Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management IGN, Copenhagen, Denmark
6.Univ Minnesota, Sch Stat, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA

Recommended Citation:
Ray, Deepak K.,West, Paul C.,Clark, Michael,et al. Climate change has likely already affected global food production[J]. PLOS ONE,2019-01-01,14(5)
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