globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
WOS记录号: WOS:000483938800001
论文题名:
Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease
作者: Salvadorayala1; Alvarado, Sergio2,6; Caceres, Dante3,6; Zulantay, Ines4; Canals, Mauricio5
通讯作者: Canals, Mauricio
刊名: REVISTA MEDICA DE CHILE
ISSN: 0034-9887
EISSN: 0717-6163
出版年: 2019
卷: 147, 期:6, 页码:683-692
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Basic Reproduction Number ; Chagas disease ; Risk
WOS关键词: SPINOLAI HETEROPTERA ; VECTOR ; CHILE ; TRANSMISSION ; TEMPERATURE ; REDUVIIDAE ; DYNAMICS ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Medicine, General & Internal
WOS研究方向: General & Internal Medicine
英文摘要:

Background: Reproductive number (R-0)-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change. Aim: To map R-0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change. Material and Methods: We used a relationship between R-0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions. Results: We obtained a geographical R-0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R-0 averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R-0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios. Conclusions: Mapping R-0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138806
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Inst Salud Publ Chile ISP, Subdept Vigilancia Lab, Santiago, Chile
2.Univ Chile, Fac Med, Escuela Salud PUbl, Programa Bioestadist, Santiago, Chile
3.Univ Chile, Fac Med, Escuela Salud Publ, Programa Salud Ambiental, Santiago, Chile
4.Univ Chile, Lab Parasitol, ICBM, Fac Med, Santiago, Chile
5.Univ Chile, Fac Med, Programa Salud Ambiental, Escuela Salud Publ,Dept Med, Santiago, Chile
6.Univ Tarapaca, Fac Ciencias Salud, Arica, Chile

Recommended Citation:
Salvadorayala,Alvarado, Sergio,Caceres, Dante,et al. Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease[J]. REVISTA MEDICA DE CHILE,2019-01-01,147(6):683-692
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