globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s10661-019-7410-7
WOS记录号: WOS:000473207600001
论文题名:
Malaria in Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the twenty-first century
作者: Tourre, Yves M.1; Vignolles, Cecile2; Viel, Christian3; Faruque, Fazlay S.4; Malone, John B.5
通讯作者: Tourre, Yves M.
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN: 0167-6369
EISSN: 1573-2959
出版年: 2019
卷: 191
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Malaria ; Atlantic multidecadal oscillation ; Sahel ; Climate change
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TRANSMISSION ; FUTURE ; IMPACT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Temperature and rainfall predicted for the twenty-first century by global coupled models as reported by IPCC, (2014a, and b)were obtained regionally for Burkina Faso and through the Paluclim project, 2011-2014. One of the goals of this project was to assess the upcoming evolution of malaria transmission dynamics. From an impact model on malaria risk linked to climate variability, temperature and rainfall indices were derived. Malaria transmission dynamics were then predicted using the derived temperature and rainfall for the twenty-first century. Similar to the historical evidence of rainfall being an important factor for regulating the seasonal density of malaria vectors, this study also reports a definitive link between low-frequency rainfall variability and malaria in the region under the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This finding can be used by local stakeholders involved with the geography-based population health planning. Moreover, the predicted increase in temperature during the twenty-first century suggests a reduction of larvae survival in Burkina Faso and thus the malaria risk. More generally, the temperature increase could become a new limiting factor for malaria transmission dynamics in the Sahel Region (as reported by Mordecai et al. (2013).


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138807
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Columbia Univ, LDEO, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
2.CNES, Toulouse, France
3.Meteo France, Toulouse, France
4.Univ Mississippi, Med Ctr, Jackson, MS 39216 USA
5.Louisiana State Univ, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA

Recommended Citation:
Tourre, Yves M.,Vignolles, Cecile,Viel, Christian,et al. Malaria in Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the twenty-first century[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,2019-01-01,191
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